A Long Summer or a Rough Start?

When you look at where the Mets stand on April 24, 15 games into the 2009 baseball season, things look really bad. The Mets are 6 and 9 and already 5 games behind the out-of-nowhere Florida Marlins. The starting pitching (with one noticeable exception) has been terrible. Clutch hitting is out of style. The season is over.

Or is it? There's no denying that the starting pitching has been horrid, but when they turn it around - and they probably will - there is no saying what this team can do. True, the hitting - particularly clutch - has been weak. But you have to remember: For crying out loud, we're 2 and a half weeks into the season.

Tell me: All the people who have been decrying the Mets for what they've done in their first 15 games, have they signed on Zack Greinke and Johan Santana as unanimous Cy Young award winners for 2009? All you people who think that John Maine and Oliver Perez will keep getting blown out of these ballgames - are you banking on Carlos Beltran winning the batting title?

I think not. Bashing the starting pitching early is particularly stupid. Remember Mike Pelfrey last year? Remember everybody bashing Johan Santana for his average start? He won the ERA crown.

The fact is that it's way too early to make good judgment less than 5% of the way into the season.

That's how I'm seeing things! Got a problem?

What's up Doc?

Nothing much. The Mets signed my nephew.

Gary Sheffield, the nephew of former Mets pitching phenom Dwight Gooden, and a major league superstar himself, has signed with the Mets.

Sheffield, 40, leaves behind a checkered past with seven teams (most recently the Tigers), and joins the Mets as a DH in the National League. Though he's played plenty of outfield in the (somewhat more distant) past, Sheffield has played just 39 games in the outfield over the past 3 seasons.

Presumably, Sheffield would displace Ryan Church in right field for (at minimum) the games against left-handed starting pitching. Since Sheffield's signing, it has become apparent that Church may serve as understudy in left- and center-field in addition to whatever work he gets in right.

At the very least, this deal provides the Mets with an experienced right-handed bat who would be available for pinch-hitting duties.

As Opening Day Nears

As Opening Day nears, it seems as though Jerry Manuel will have Luis Castillo batting eighth, the arguments otherwise (which can be found here) notwithstanding. Jose Reyes will bat in his customary leadoff spot, and Daniel Murphy will bat second. The third slot in the batting order's duty will be split by David Wright and Carlos Beltran, while the other will bat fifth. Carlos Delgado will bat cleanup. Ryan Church and the catching tandem of Brian Schneider and Ramon Castro will round out the top eight spots in the order; the pitcher will bat ninth.

It is unclear as to whether Luis Castillo would bat second in games that Daniel Murphy does not play. Should he not, the two-hole would probably be manned by Fernando Tatis.

Here is the Starting Lineup with last year's statistics: (BA/OBP/SLG/HR/RBI)
1. SS Jose Reyes (.297/.358/.475/16/68)
2. LF Daniel Murphy (.313/.397/.473/2/17) in 131 at-bats/
LF Fernando Tatis (.297/.369/.484/11/47) in 273 at-bats
3. 3B David Wright (.302/.390/.534/33/124)
4. 1B Carlos Delgado (.271/.353/.518/38/115)
5. CF Carlos Beltran (.284/.376/.500/27/112)
6. RF Ryan Church (.276/.346/.439/12/49) in 319 at-bats
7. C Brian Schneider (.257/.339/.367/9/38) in 335 at-bats/
C Ramon Castro (.245/.312/.441/7/24) in 143 at-bats
8. 2B Luis Castillo (.245/.355/.305/3/28) in 199 at-bats

It's a solid lineup, which, coupled with the quality rotation and great bullpen should comprise the team to beat in the National League East.

Mystery Solved

The answer to yesterday's post regarding David Wright's wearing number 4 in the World Baseball Classic, as opposed to his customary 5 is quite simple. Team USA manager is wearing number 5.

Today, John Maine pitched ineffectively in his second straight start. As an integral component to the Mets machine, his performance will have to be markedly better come April.

Interesting WBC Note

Weirdly enough, David Wright, who wears number 5 when he plays for the Mets, is wearing number 4 in the World Baseball Classic.

When I first noticed this, I figured that it was because somebody else was wearing number 5 on the USA team, but as is evidenced here, that is not the case.

If anybody knows the reason, please post it in the comments.

Santana Update

Johan Santana's ability to pitch on Opening Day is still uncertain. Supposedly, if everything goes according to schedule, he will make it. Of course, that's a very big "if."

If you've been watching the pre-season games and have been wondering why there are so many ballplayers you've never heard of, and why some stars aren't playing at all, it's about time you've heard: there's a World Baseball Classic this year.

Due to arm trouble, Johan Santana is not likely to be able to pitch on Opening Day for the Mets. If everything goes well, he'll pitch Game 5.

Poll Results

Unanimously, the voters chose Manny Ramirez as the Mets best option for starting left-fielder for 2009.

Thoughts on the Batting Order

Mets.com reports that Jerry Manuel may elect to have Jose Reyes bat third this year, in which case his customary leadoff slot would be manned by Luis Castillo. Carlos Beltran, who might otherwise bat fifth, would bat second, and David Wright and Carlos Delgado would probably bat third and fourth, respectively.

When I first got wind of this, I didn't think it was much of an idea. But it's growing on me. One major component is Luis Castillo. He has plenty of experience leading off in his career, and truthfully, that's probably the only slot in the batting order where he could be of significant value.

You see, Luis usually has a high on-base percentage and a very low slugging percentage. As such, the lower he bats in the batting order, the lower his value. If he bats second or seventh, his lack of extra-base power and related comparative inability to drive runs in will be a hole in the batting order. If he bats leadoff, his extra-base power is not a weakness. His ability to get on base and steal bases will be just what the doctor ordered (if not quite on par what Jose Reyes would provide) for the one-hole.

Having Jose Reyes bat third instead of second might just be necessary because Manuel wants Beltran to bat second. The benefit of that would be that the two lesser hitters (Castillo and Reyes) would each be protected by the two greater threats (Beltran and Wright/Delgado).

If this does occur, presumably Ryan Church would bat sixth, Daniel Murphy/Fernando Tatis sixth, and Brian Schneider/Ramon Castro eighth.

Otherwise, you might see Luis Castillo at the bottom of the order with Murphy or Church batting second.

When you get down to it, however, it's all a guessing game. Not only don't you really know if Castillo will bat better with Reyes or Beltran behind him, you don't really know if Castillo will produce in 2009. Or Beltran. Or the rest of them.

For Shame!!

After reports that he had tested positive for steroids in 2003, today Alex Rodriguez admitted to using the illegal substances when he was with the Rangers from 2001-2003.

The effects of cheating: He posted his first, third and fifth-highest home run totals in those years. Those three years were also his three best in terms of games played. However, his reputation, weak all along, has now crumbled to a heap which journeymen players the likes of Steve Trachsel and Todd Zeile (and so many others) can now look down at.

Shame on you, Alex.

New Poll

In our previous poll, "Which available pitcher should the Mets target this offseason," the winner was Derek Lowe. In second place was Jake Peavy, and third place went to Oliver Perez. CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett garnered nary a vote. Interstingly enough, they are now both Yankees. I feel rather certain that Sabathia was not voted for because of his large pricetag, and Burnett, because of his injury-laden past.

The new poll asks who you want to be the starting left-fielder for the Mets in the 2009 season. Choices include Daniel Murphy, Nick Evans, Manny Ramirez and Fernando Tatis.

Rumors of Manny Ramirez being likely to join the Mets are of unknown validity. Stay tuned for updates.

Who is the best shortstop in New York?

The real answer to this question is almost certainly Alex Rodriguez. But since he'll be playing third base for the Yankees, once again, let's look at Jose Reyes vs. Derek Jeter.

Jose Reyes is a young rising star who will turn 26 in June. Derek Jeter is an old fading star who will turn 35 in June. Derek Jeter's numbers look as though he is in decline. Jose Reyes's numbers look as though he is in ascent, or at the very least at a plateau - certainly not in decline. You might think that this is enough to say that Reyes is more valuable - in 2009 - than Jeter is, but some persistent Yankee fans have been hard-headed enough to pull some numbers out.

2008 Numbers

Reyes vs. Jeter
.833 OPS .771
113 Runs 88
37 Doubles 25
19 Triples 3
16 HR 11
56 SB 11
15 CS 5
9 GDP 24

Jose Reyes beats Derek Jeter in almost every major offensive category. Jeter does manage to squeak by Reyes in batting average and on-base percentage but those few points are nothing compared with the huge difference in their power numbers. Jeter also produces more outs, with many more double plays and has a significantly worse stolen base percentage.

On the fielding side of things, Reyes fielder much more balls than average for his position in the National League, while Jeter fielded fewer than AL average. So, while Jeter had a better fielding percentage than Reyes, he also made fewer plays. It is not worth having a fielder with no range and few errors over one with good range and more errors. Reyes, playing with a variety of second basemen, also turned many more DPs (89 to 69) than Jeter, playing essentially with Robinson Cano.

Overall, I (and the Mets) will go with Reyes.

Fresh Faces

Well, they've done it. After six months of nail-biting anguish whenever a ballgame was passed over to the bullpen, the front-office has finally shown that it means business. Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez, who set the record for saves in a season (with 62) just months ago, has been signed by the Mets to close out games in 2009 and beyond.

Additionally, in a large and complicated trade, the Mets acquired Mariners' closer JJ Putz to be the primary set-up man for the club. The Mets parted with Aaron Heilman and Joe Smith - exchanging quantity for quality.

Whether they will contend (or, dare we say it, win) in 2009 has not yet been determined. However, these transactions certainly show that the Mets are committed to compete.

Go "K"razy - Reportedly, the Mets have come to terms with free-agent closer Francisco Rodriguez (pending a physical, etc.).

No News (is Good News)

Thus far, the Mets, like the other 29 teams, have been rather quiet. This will probably change soon.

The Mets must decide whether they want to keep Oliver Perez. While he is admittedly remarkably inconsistent, you've got to realize that there aren't a lot of quality starters out there to choose from. Pedro Martinez will almost certainly not return, and if Oliver Perez doesn't either, the Mets' rotation will be two men short. The proven pitchers, such as Derek Lowe, will be quite expensive, and the Mets are unlikely to acquire more than one high-priced starter. (Others include CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett.)

Oliver Perez is familiar with New York and has shown a propensity for pitching well under pressure. He may be the free agent that the Mets need.

If he returns, the Mets will have a solid, if not amazing, top 4 starting pitchers of Johan Santana, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Mike Pelfrey. And one other good starter, and the rotation is really good.

* * *

But, realistically, the rotation is not the problem. Last year, the Mets had very good starting pitching and they still came up short.

What were the problems? Relief Pitching and Hitting (particularly of the clutch variety). With Ryan Church presumably recovered from his concussion, Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy splitting time in left-field and Carlos Delgado, once again, a feared slugger, the Mets should have a quite respectable offense.

* * *

Good starting pitching. Good hitting. That takes us to the bottom of the ninth. With a lead. To whom? The answer to this question and the rest of the bullpen puzzle may well decide the fate of the 2009 New York Mets. The only two longstanding members of the Mets bullpen are Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano. Heilman is campaigning for a starting slot and both are coming off off-years. The bullpen is in shambles. Joe Smith should be returning. Scott Schoenweiss should also be, but who knows what he is worth. There is a closer (Billy Wagner) being paid, but there is none, as of yet, who will be putting on the orange and blue.

Omar Minaya: This is your place to shine. Build a good bullpen, and you know any talks about your recent extension will be squashed (unless they say, "They should have extended him for 10 years). The rotation and offense are important, but this ballclub will go nowhere without a quality bullpen.

The Moose Has Left His Tracks - But They Shouldn't Lead to Cooperstown

Last week Mike Mussina announced his retirement. Good for him. He had a very good career and, with his renaissance last year, he ended it off on a good note (unlike many other pitchers, like John Franco and Al Leiter, who didn't know when to call it quits.) He doesn't need the money, having made well over 100 million dollars playing baseball. Now, of course, the Mussina-related discussion turns to whether or not he belongs in the Hall of Fame. I think not. Mike Mussina was quite good for quite a while, but is he really a great?

A natural place to turn in this discussion is awards. If a man has shown himself time and again to be the best pitcher in his league (such as Pedro Martinez) then he certainly qualifies as an all-time great. Mike Mussina has never won a Cy Young Award. Ron Guidry, Fernando Valenzuela and Doc Gooden all won Cy Young Awards and none of them is in the Hall of Fame. So did David Cone and Orel Hersheiser. Bret Saberhagen won two, and he isn't in it, either.

Not only was he never the best pitcher in the league, but he was never even particularly close. In 1999, Mussina was so much worse than Pedro Martinez, who got the Cy Young, that Mike did not even garner one first-place vote. His ERA was also well over a run higher than Pedro's.

Mike was almost always good, but never top quality. There was one year (1999) where he was maybe (I don't think so, but it's close -) in the top 5 pitchers of baseball.

Additionally, Mike did not do well in the postseason, and that will quite possibly count against him.

The question of whether Mike Mussina belongs in the Hall of Fame may boil down to this: Is a starting pitcher who received three first-place votes for the Cy Young in his entire career really Hall of Fame quality?

I think not.

Looking Towards Next Year

With season 2008 a thing of the past, we can all try to forget about the World Champions, and concentrate on bringing the 2009 World Series Crown to New York. Queens.

If Omar Minaya can obtain the necessities on this shopping list, the Mets will no longer have an excuse for failing. (Their excuses over the past few years have been woefully inadequate, but have still existed. If the necessary parts come in, there will be no excuse. Period!)

Shopping List:
2nd Baseman
2 Starters
6 adequate relief pitchers

Right Now: The Mets are tied for first place with the Nationals, Braves, Marlins and Phillies (why shouldn't they be listed last?). They all have the pristine record of 0-0.

There's Nothing to Say

Actually, there's always something to say. How about, "How lame would this team be without Johan Santana?"

Oliver Perez's good outing was far from enough as the offense (and to a much lesser extent the bullpen) took the day off. What it added up to was the third straight year that the Mets' season has ended on a sour note, and the second straight time it's been in Game 162.

Omar: Make it worth it to...

Wait 'til Next Year!!

Thin Ice

After some ups and downs over the course of 2 weeks, this Friday night the Mets began a steep decline. They've lost 3 of 4, with a culpable bullpen, and the Phillies have been hot. The sum of things? The Mets are a dangerous just a half game ahead of the Phillies.

The fact is that the Mets are in first place. And while they are hardly firmly entrenched there, their fate is in their collective hand (which, in terms of the bullpen, is kind of scary). Additionally, with Milwaukee's recent troubles the Mets could fall back on the Wild Card as a means to the postseason if the Phillies take the NL East.

If you look at things logically, the Mets should try resigning Tom Seaver to their ballclub and putting him in the bullpen. There's nothing to lose - he can't be worse than anyone else out there. And the potential benefits are great: He might be able to pitch better than the other fellows, in which case the benefit is obvious. Even if he can't muster that, perhaps he can influence the bullpen members, or teach them something about the art of pitching (which he probably knows something about - look at this). Even if that doesn't happen, he's such a popular figure that he will undoubtedly put fans in the seats. Added revenue could very possibly get ownership to spend more money on salary for other, perhaps better, players (see Johan Santana).

All in all, I think it's a no-brainer.