Who is the best shortstop in New York?

The real answer to this question is almost certainly Alex Rodriguez. But since he'll be playing third base for the Yankees, once again, let's look at Jose Reyes vs. Derek Jeter.

Jose Reyes is a young rising star who will turn 26 in June. Derek Jeter is an old fading star who will turn 35 in June. Derek Jeter's numbers look as though he is in decline. Jose Reyes's numbers look as though he is in ascent, or at the very least at a plateau - certainly not in decline. You might think that this is enough to say that Reyes is more valuable - in 2009 - than Jeter is, but some persistent Yankee fans have been hard-headed enough to pull some numbers out.

2008 Numbers

Reyes vs. Jeter
.833 OPS .771
113 Runs 88
37 Doubles 25
19 Triples 3
16 HR 11
56 SB 11
15 CS 5
9 GDP 24

Jose Reyes beats Derek Jeter in almost every major offensive category. Jeter does manage to squeak by Reyes in batting average and on-base percentage but those few points are nothing compared with the huge difference in their power numbers. Jeter also produces more outs, with many more double plays and has a significantly worse stolen base percentage.

On the fielding side of things, Reyes fielder much more balls than average for his position in the National League, while Jeter fielded fewer than AL average. So, while Jeter had a better fielding percentage than Reyes, he also made fewer plays. It is not worth having a fielder with no range and few errors over one with good range and more errors. Reyes, playing with a variety of second basemen, also turned many more DPs (89 to 69) than Jeter, playing essentially with Robinson Cano.

Overall, I (and the Mets) will go with Reyes.

Fresh Faces

Well, they've done it. After six months of nail-biting anguish whenever a ballgame was passed over to the bullpen, the front-office has finally shown that it means business. Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez, who set the record for saves in a season (with 62) just months ago, has been signed by the Mets to close out games in 2009 and beyond.

Additionally, in a large and complicated trade, the Mets acquired Mariners' closer JJ Putz to be the primary set-up man for the club. The Mets parted with Aaron Heilman and Joe Smith - exchanging quantity for quality.

Whether they will contend (or, dare we say it, win) in 2009 has not yet been determined. However, these transactions certainly show that the Mets are committed to compete.

Go "K"razy - Reportedly, the Mets have come to terms with free-agent closer Francisco Rodriguez (pending a physical, etc.).

No News (is Good News)

Thus far, the Mets, like the other 29 teams, have been rather quiet. This will probably change soon.

The Mets must decide whether they want to keep Oliver Perez. While he is admittedly remarkably inconsistent, you've got to realize that there aren't a lot of quality starters out there to choose from. Pedro Martinez will almost certainly not return, and if Oliver Perez doesn't either, the Mets' rotation will be two men short. The proven pitchers, such as Derek Lowe, will be quite expensive, and the Mets are unlikely to acquire more than one high-priced starter. (Others include CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett.)

Oliver Perez is familiar with New York and has shown a propensity for pitching well under pressure. He may be the free agent that the Mets need.

If he returns, the Mets will have a solid, if not amazing, top 4 starting pitchers of Johan Santana, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Mike Pelfrey. And one other good starter, and the rotation is really good.

* * *

But, realistically, the rotation is not the problem. Last year, the Mets had very good starting pitching and they still came up short.

What were the problems? Relief Pitching and Hitting (particularly of the clutch variety). With Ryan Church presumably recovered from his concussion, Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy splitting time in left-field and Carlos Delgado, once again, a feared slugger, the Mets should have a quite respectable offense.

* * *

Good starting pitching. Good hitting. That takes us to the bottom of the ninth. With a lead. To whom? The answer to this question and the rest of the bullpen puzzle may well decide the fate of the 2009 New York Mets. The only two longstanding members of the Mets bullpen are Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano. Heilman is campaigning for a starting slot and both are coming off off-years. The bullpen is in shambles. Joe Smith should be returning. Scott Schoenweiss should also be, but who knows what he is worth. There is a closer (Billy Wagner) being paid, but there is none, as of yet, who will be putting on the orange and blue.

Omar Minaya: This is your place to shine. Build a good bullpen, and you know any talks about your recent extension will be squashed (unless they say, "They should have extended him for 10 years). The rotation and offense are important, but this ballclub will go nowhere without a quality bullpen.

The Moose Has Left His Tracks - But They Shouldn't Lead to Cooperstown

Last week Mike Mussina announced his retirement. Good for him. He had a very good career and, with his renaissance last year, he ended it off on a good note (unlike many other pitchers, like John Franco and Al Leiter, who didn't know when to call it quits.) He doesn't need the money, having made well over 100 million dollars playing baseball. Now, of course, the Mussina-related discussion turns to whether or not he belongs in the Hall of Fame. I think not. Mike Mussina was quite good for quite a while, but is he really a great?

A natural place to turn in this discussion is awards. If a man has shown himself time and again to be the best pitcher in his league (such as Pedro Martinez) then he certainly qualifies as an all-time great. Mike Mussina has never won a Cy Young Award. Ron Guidry, Fernando Valenzuela and Doc Gooden all won Cy Young Awards and none of them is in the Hall of Fame. So did David Cone and Orel Hersheiser. Bret Saberhagen won two, and he isn't in it, either.

Not only was he never the best pitcher in the league, but he was never even particularly close. In 1999, Mussina was so much worse than Pedro Martinez, who got the Cy Young, that Mike did not even garner one first-place vote. His ERA was also well over a run higher than Pedro's.

Mike was almost always good, but never top quality. There was one year (1999) where he was maybe (I don't think so, but it's close -) in the top 5 pitchers of baseball.

Additionally, Mike did not do well in the postseason, and that will quite possibly count against him.

The question of whether Mike Mussina belongs in the Hall of Fame may boil down to this: Is a starting pitcher who received three first-place votes for the Cy Young in his entire career really Hall of Fame quality?

I think not.

Looking Towards Next Year

With season 2008 a thing of the past, we can all try to forget about the World Champions, and concentrate on bringing the 2009 World Series Crown to New York. Queens.

If Omar Minaya can obtain the necessities on this shopping list, the Mets will no longer have an excuse for failing. (Their excuses over the past few years have been woefully inadequate, but have still existed. If the necessary parts come in, there will be no excuse. Period!)

Shopping List:
2nd Baseman
2 Starters
6 adequate relief pitchers

Right Now: The Mets are tied for first place with the Nationals, Braves, Marlins and Phillies (why shouldn't they be listed last?). They all have the pristine record of 0-0.

There's Nothing to Say

Actually, there's always something to say. How about, "How lame would this team be without Johan Santana?"

Oliver Perez's good outing was far from enough as the offense (and to a much lesser extent the bullpen) took the day off. What it added up to was the third straight year that the Mets' season has ended on a sour note, and the second straight time it's been in Game 162.

Omar: Make it worth it to...

Wait 'til Next Year!!

Thin Ice

After some ups and downs over the course of 2 weeks, this Friday night the Mets began a steep decline. They've lost 3 of 4, with a culpable bullpen, and the Phillies have been hot. The sum of things? The Mets are a dangerous just a half game ahead of the Phillies.

The fact is that the Mets are in first place. And while they are hardly firmly entrenched there, their fate is in their collective hand (which, in terms of the bullpen, is kind of scary). Additionally, with Milwaukee's recent troubles the Mets could fall back on the Wild Card as a means to the postseason if the Phillies take the NL East.

If you look at things logically, the Mets should try resigning Tom Seaver to their ballclub and putting him in the bullpen. There's nothing to lose - he can't be worse than anyone else out there. And the potential benefits are great: He might be able to pitch better than the other fellows, in which case the benefit is obvious. Even if he can't muster that, perhaps he can influence the bullpen members, or teach them something about the art of pitching (which he probably knows something about - look at this). Even if that doesn't happen, he's such a popular figure that he will undoubtedly put fans in the seats. Added revenue could very possibly get ownership to spend more money on salary for other, perhaps better, players (see Johan Santana).

All in all, I think it's a no-brainer.

What's the Difference?

What's the difference between the New York Mets of 2007 and the New York Mets of 2008? I'm not asking for some of the obvious ones, the roster changes and such. What is the difference that will very possibly put them over the top?

1. Johan Santana. Having an ace, a stopper, who goes out every five days is extremely huge for a team in the pennant race. Johan essentially replaced Tom Glavine as the Mets' #1 starter, so the difference from 2007 is huge. (Remember Game 162 of last year?)

2. Carlos Delgado. His miraculous turnaround from a year ago is huge to a Mets' offense that's been without Moises Alou and Ryan Church for most of the year. He is hitting well and hitting clutch and has certainly been carrying the team.

There are a few others that can go in there. Camraderie, better production from the corner outfield spots, better defense, better starting pitching (overall), but I think that Carlos D. and Johan are the two essentials that can make this team win.

Coming Up: Oliver Perez takes on Chris Volstead of the Marlins as the Mets look to increase their lead over the Phils.

Flaming Hot

Mike Pelfrey is pitching really, really well right now. How well? 4 runs in his last 18 innings, which were collected in two straight complete games. He also just cracked the top 20 in pitching in the National League.

Over the weekend, the Mets let the Philles climb even closer to them; currently Philadelphia is just one half game out of first. Tonight, the Mets play the first of two in Philadelphia. It's an opportunity for the Mets to strenghten their slim lead, and an opportunity for the Phils to regain it for themselves.

Up Next: Pedro Martinez and Jaime Moyer face off against each other in Philadelphia tonight. Each has been hot of late, so prepare for a pitching duel.

Baseball Note: The Washington Nationals and Seattle Marinersn each have a real possibility of being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs in the month of August. The Reds and Pirates each have an outside shot at this dubious honor. The San Diego Padres may get eliminated from the wild-card before September but will still (theoretically) be in the division race. Better luck next year.

Blog Update: You know how it seems as though Billy Wagner is going to be out longer than expected. Well, in some parallel universe I am emulating him. I've extended the deadline for voting in the Billy Poll. Now go out and vote!

After hearing the disheartening Billy Wagner news, (he requires rest before he can resume throwing) the Mets went out and beat Atlanta 7-3. The game was a lot closer than that, however. Good starting pitching by both Jo-Jo (not a typo) Reyes and Oliver Perez left the game at 3-2 in favor of the Braves going into the bottom of the eighth.

The eight inning, the clear turning-point of the game, featured 5 Met runs including 2 RBIs each by Carlos Delgado and Damion Easley and one by Ramon Castro.

The fielding (at least for the Mets) was satisfactory once again.

The Mets maintain a 1.5 game lead over the Phillies.

Yankee Update: After their loss today, the floundering Yankees (3-7 in their last 10 games) are 11 games out of first place and 6.5 games out of the wild card. With Melky Cabrera (lost at the plate, so redirected to the minor leagues) out of the picture and Hideki Matsui in it, Johnny Damon is finding his way into center field. Not very effectively. He made two big miscues in tonights' game, and while only one went for an error, he really showed what he can - or can't - do out there in centerfield.

Poll: Time is running out to vote in our poll. Vote early; vote often.

No Nonsense

Johan Santana didn't want to let the game go to the Mets' abysmal bullpen, so instead he opted to pitch the whole thing. Johan's 0-for-4 might not look pretty, but his complete-game shutout - the first by a Met all year - certainly was pleasing.

The bulk of the offense was delivered by the least likely of the starting 8, catcher Brian Schneider. His 2-for-3 with 3 RBIs was more than enough to deliver the Mets to a victory, their sixth straight.

Apology: In my last blog post I wrote that the Mets were on the verge of sweeping the Pirates. I had not realized that the series in Pittsburgh was a four-game affair and that the Mets will only be going for the sweep tomorrow.

Specific Stats: The Mets are in first place. Johan Santana's ERA is third-best in the league.

Get Your Brooms Ready...

...because the Mets are looking for the sweep. After two impressive victories, the Mets are sending ace Johan Santana to the mound opposite Pirate (and former Yankee) Jeff Karstens.

Where's the Cat?

Because the Mets, like the proverbial mouse, are certainly playing around. Tonight, they were all over Washington pitching with a total of 12 runs on 13 hits.

Two pitching surprises: The Mets won via the shutout, limiting the Nationals to just 4 hits, and they used only 2 pitchers. That's right. After John Maine pitched five great innings, Brian Stokes finished it off.

In the peculiar events of the last two nights, the Mets have had 2 saves - both by different people, neither of whom is the man they pronounced as their closer yesterday (Eddie Kunz).

On the defensive side of things, the Mets have been playing much better, of late. With Argenis Reyes (instead of Damion Easley) and Fernando Tatis (instead of Marlon Anderson) each getting a bit more playing time, no-one should be surprised at the decrease in errors. The surprising part is that the Mets have not made any errors in 18 of their last 21 games. That's pretty good! Included in that was a 12 game errorless streak from July 22 to August 2.

As of this writing, the Mets are just one half game behind the Phillies. That means that if the Phillies lose tonight, (unlikely, they're winning 6-1) the Mets would be tied with them for first place in the National League East.

Quality Starting: The Mets' rotation is really looking formidable. Johan Santana, arguably the greatest pitcher in baseball (I might argue that) is 5th in the league with an ERA of 2.89. Oliver Perez and John Maine are, respectively, 3.90 and 3.97, both very good marks. Mike Pelfrey backs up the list with "only" a 4.11 ERA. That's good stuff.

Surprise Twist

After prevailing rumors (unfortuantely not on this site, I may have been slacking off) of Eddie Kunz being the new closer (until Billy Wagner's return), the closer tonight was Pedro Feliciano.

The good news, of course, that there was a save situation. Johan Santana pitched pretty well and the offense gave its contribution. Add that to good performance by the bullpen, and you've got a victory.

Unlucky

Unlucky just about describes Pedro Martinez (in regard to a certain thing), in that he received a no-decision as compensation for his great outing today. (I can't call the guy unlucky - he'd pulled in over $134 million in baseball contracts coming into this year, according to this.)

Once again, the bullpen blew it. Joe Smith, Pedro Feliciano and Aaron Heilman each contributed to today's debacle, combining to give up 6 runs in an inning-plus. Especially distressing (at least to me) was Heilman's reverting to his old ways after two positive outings.

As you may recall (from the last paragraph of this), I have supported Aaron Heilman as the second-in-line closer (i.e. closer when, like now, Billy Wagner is unavailable). I still do support him, but I must admit that his inconsistency is really getting distressing. The step after that is depressing.

However, even after today's loss, the Mets are just 2.5 games out of the division lead. There's plenty of baseball, yet. All is not lost.

Yankees Update: The Yankees, in serious trouble at 8.5 games behind the Rays and 4 behind wild-card leading Boston, are currently losing to the Twins. Boston, too, is currently losing.

Poll Update: Apparently, consensus is that the Mets' biggest problem is their relief pitching. After today's game, I think it'd be hard to argue against that.

New Poll: Coming soon.

Well, it Counts

Johan Santana pitched well again, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits in 7+ innings. Scott Schoenweiss blew the Mets' lead and David Wright saved the day in the bottom of the ninth. Just another day in the exciting adventures of Metville.

David Wright and Carlos Beltran had three hits apiece.

The Mets can regain second place by winning the upcoming series against the Florida Marlins.

While he was certainly shaky earlier in the week, Aaron Heilman pitched effectively today. I think that, considering that Billy Wagner is currently out, Aaron Heilman should be the default closer. Sure he has some bad outings - everyone does. However, if you look at his career statistics, it is apparent that he is a very good pitcher. Dominant. Probably closer material. He may be shaky this year, but who's going to do a better job? Scott Schoenweiss? Duaner Sanchez? I believe, Jerry, that the closer's job should be Aaron's to lose.

Beyond Crazy

The Mets just got swept in Houston in embarassing fashion. On a day when they had 9 hits and 4 walks they cashed in for a depressing 0 runs.

Oliver Perez pitched pretty badly, overall, but he only gave up 4 runs in 6 innings. The Mets had the opportunity to do something today, and the offense blew it.

Robinson Cancel made a big base-running blunder in the 3rd inning, getting caught stealing at third base for the third out with David Wright at the plate. Gary Cohen was jumping all over him for that dumb play, but I didn't think that it was so crazy. The very fact that it was a stupid play might catch the Astros off guard, he probably thought. In fact, Robinson had already caught them off-guard once in the inning with his bunt single.

On the bright side of things, Nick Evans had two asssist in leftfield (both at second base), Reyes, Beltran and Delgado each had multi-hit games (3 for Carlos D.), and Eddie Kunz, in his major-leauge debut, pitched a scoreless, if not uneventful, 7th inning.

I believe that at this point, Carlos Delgado should be instated as the number 3 hitter (which would shift David Wright down to fourth). Besides the fact that Carlos is currently hitting better than David, Jose Reyes is hot, too, so by batting Carlos 3rd, you'd be bunching together the consistent hitters.

Oh, to all you batting-average watchers out there, Carlos Delgado (.268) has raised his batting average above that of Carlos Beltran (.266).

Nothing Doing

The non-waiver trading deadline has come and gone, and while there has been a flurry of moves changing the look of New York baseball, the Mets remain unchanged. The Yankees have a new catcher, outfielder, and relief pitcher, but the Mets just have their irregulars and bullpen unreliables (and the hope of Ryan Church's return).

But listen to this: DON'T WORRY! At the current time, the Mets are just a game out of first place. Against a good (but not great) Phillies team, the Mets should probably emerge as NL East Champions.

Additionally, the Mets seem to have a relatively light schedule from here on in. Only seven inter-division games are against good teams (Brewers, Cubs). Also, until August 26th, the Mets play just three games against a third place team, and no games against a team in first or second place. New York also has more home games (29) remaining than away games (25).

All in all, it is clear that the Mets have a decent chance. It's up to the players. If Fernando, Carlos, Carlos, Endy, David, Jose, Damion and Brian (and the pitching staff, especially the bullpen) can get the job done, the Mets will end up on top.

We'll see.

New Poll Question

There is a new poll question up on the right side of the page. Please vote.

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Great victory yesterday, by the way. Oliver pitched really well. Again. Carlos Delgado is making the Mets think about whether they should re-sign him. David Wright had an RBI. What else is new?

4-1 is pretty good. So is first place.